The Runaway Trader

After the market closes today, BIDU, the so-called “Chinese Google” will report earnings and it’s anyone’s guess which way the stock will go from there.

It’s a tremendously dicey play—either holding long or short through earnings. It’s just as risky trying the catch the wave after earnings are announced. If history serves me right, the after-hour volatility is more of a tsunami than a gentle slope either up or down.

And that makes it fun, yet dangerous to play. I admit I have lucked out and caught the wave going up. And I remember about six months ago when I bought Baidu during the extended market not knowing that earnings were imminent, and I paid dearly that mistake.

BIDU can instantly soar 30, 40 points or more on a good showing. And, of course, it can sink just as fast and far. And what constitutes a “good showing” is also anybody’s guess, since it can tank even with a good report and vice-versa.

Does this sound like gambling? Flipping a coin, heads-or-tail, to make money.Sure it does. And it is. Still, easy come, easy go. You place your bet. You take your chances.

Are you up for that challenge?
Charlie, the Runaway Trader

Whiling away the hours aboard a non-stop flight from Dubai to Atlanta can be a challenging task, since you’ve got a bucketload of time to kill. Fiften hours, in fact. And one of the things I pondered as I winged my wayhome was what other sites are vaguely like mine—this unholy combination of travel and trading stuff.

Turns out there’s none that I could find. But I did find one that is “sort of” like mind called RoadJunkyTravel.

The premise of this Web site, if I can characterize it myself, is to travel the world on the cheap, and maybe even for nothing. And if I were guessing at its demographics, I’d say it appeals to folks in their 20s, perhaps early 30s. Folks who can, young as they are, ignore the call of the material world and set sail on a course of adventure travel—-whether they have big bucks or not.

Well, that’s not exactly what my site is about. I would just as soon travel the world in style (not hitchhiking or begging meals or train fare at the estacion) and stock trading and even writing the occasional book on the go helps make that possible. I honestly think there other thousands, maybe millions of others who’d like to do the same thing.

Still, I’m intrigued by the site, since it’s thoughtfully crafted and offers a variety methods to see the world whether you’ve got buckets of cash or not. Tips on cheap travel, cheap food, cheap lodgings, cheap airfare and a whole lot more. It’s sort of Web site meets Working Your Way Around the World

Plus, you can hook up with other RoadJunkies. I signed up, but since I’m old as dirt, I don’t expect to be sharing a bed and breakfast in Vienna with some 25-year-old nubile anytime soon.

It’s all in the Mind’s Eye

I had a meeting a couple of days ago with my friend Bob MacDonald, the insurance maverick and contrarian business advisor. I happen to mention this blog and when he brought it up on his computer, he laughed, out loud, about the photo I used on “Who’s Charlie?”

Why so funny? Well, the photo is at least 20 years ago and I have stubbornly hung on to it because it was professionally taken by a great Minneapolis photo house. Plus, I was probably better looking then, than now.

I know that’s dumb. But since it’s unlikely you’ll ever meet me in person, I apparently thought it doesn’t make any difference. Well, in the interest of total transparency, I have to warn you that this photo is sadly out of date. I promise to update it. Just as soon as I can get a new one taken.

So what do I look like now? Well, it little fatter, a little grayer. There are some photos on Flickr from my recent jaunt to Dubai that can set you straight. Oh … to be young again.
—Charlie, the Runaway Trader

A few weeks back, I exercised a long-burning desire to own shares of AAPL. I have a deep and abiding appreciation for the talents of Steve Jobs, the guy who not only founded the company, but brought it back from the edge of financial disaster in 1997 when management couldn’t get its act together.

Week after week I kept my eye on this stock. And then, just before the new iPhone hit the street, I decided that “now” was the time to climb on board.

Talk about a stupid decision.

Almost from the second I bought the stock, it started an inexorable descent. As you can see from this chart, I jumped in at 186 back in June. Just look what happened to this POS. Down and down and down some more.

I finally dumped it after hours today when it took still another hit after worrisome earnings were announced. I’m told by Fast Money that 140 might be a good entry point, and that’s probably coming sometime this week.

Moral of the story? Never fall in love with a stock. They’ll hurt you everytime.

Getting My Head Together

It took me several days to square away from circadian clock after my bout with Dubai and its 9-hour time differential. Not much trading until today.

Picked up $600+ doing a do-si-do with FSLR. I bailed out just before the close and will wait until a half-hour into tomorrow’s trading session to review the skirmish lines. My hunch is tomorrow is going to be a troublesome day in the market. All down. Good time to short your favorite stocks—particularly those which had a runup today.

I’m already planning my next getaway. I’m thinking maybe a hiking trip sometime in September. Then I’m going rent some digs in San Miguel de Allende, Mexico for a return, 3-month siesta this winter.

Incidentally, I bumped into an interesting Web site that treats running away and seeing the world more thoroughly than I. I’ll give you the low-down on that tomorrow.

Meantime, happy trading. Go short on anything tech tonight and make money tomorrow.

Charlie the Runaway Trader