Future Shock, you may remember, was that bestselling book published in 1970 and written by futurologist Alvin Toffler. Toffler pointed out in this work the crushing problems presented by modern technology and specifically the psychological disruption of individuals and societies in response to rapid technological change. Future shock is, according to Alvin, “too much change in too short a period of time.”
Frankly, psychological jarring has not been much of a problem in my life because I usually sample all sorts of new
technologies as an early-adopter. Except - and I am reporting today — the smart phone harnesses me with future shock. Too much, too fast. In this slice of technological life, I’m definitely a bush league, Johnny-come-lately. The opposite of an early adopter.
An early adopter of course, is a person who eagerly buys or tries out new hardware items and programs, and new versions of existing programs, sooner than most of their peers. According to the “Diffusion of Innovations” theory of how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures
early adopters make up 13.5 percent of the population.
I used to be one of those guys . . . an “innovator.” For example, I picked up my first hand-held calculator sometime in the 1960s long before they became cheap and popular. It cost me $125 (Texas Instruments), like about a week’s salary for the average Joe Dokes. Nowadays, they give these things aware free with your checkbook and the Internet is virtually awash with free online number crunchers.
Same Deal for Computers
When personal computers first came out in the early 1980s, I knew I had to own one since I didn’t want this fast-moving technology to leave me behind. It really simplified many chores in the book publishing company I had recently founded. My escapades in the stock market hadn’t been born yet.
As an “early adopter” I bought an IBM PC. It cost me $4,500 (can you believe that?) including software. That’s about $6500 in today’s dollars. It was devoid of a hard drive but was capable of manipulating a mind-numbing total memory of 128K (that’s 128,000 bytes, about enough bytes to completely circle the tip of a pinhead. But gee whiz, as an author, I could almost put a whole book on one 4.5-inch floppy drive. Yippee skippy!
I’ve been though, perhaps, a half-dozen computers since then each bring with it a new wave of capabilities and stuff I am literally forced to learn. And by way of techno-shock, the HP desktop I’m using to post this message cost a measly $500 and features 325 billion bytes of memory. That’s how fast and how far we’ve moved.
Even my new tiny Acer netbook cost a trifling $350 delivered and is more than a million times more powerful that the breadbox-sized IBM PC. No foolin’. This little puppy can probably hold a dozen or more encyclopedias, a director’s cut version of Debbie Does Dallas, with space left over for any book I might write about day trading on the road.
“Mr. Watson — come here — I want to see you.”
All of which brings me back to the cellphone. I mention it today because I’m planning for my forthcoming Runaway Trading mission to all points West and I needed a new cell phone to maximize my on-the-road trading. I’m stuck with one of those ancient gizmos that does little else by make phone calls and snap pictures. How todally dorky. It’s the technological equivalent of disseminating this blog on a Smith-Corona.
I’ve written many times about cellphones falling short of the demands of active traders, and that’s why I’ve always relied on my laptop for serious trading. But I finally have rethought my Luddite propensities.
Turns out that folks like ETrade and TDAmeritrade have specially-built trading platforms for Iphones and most Blackberries. And since Apple just released their G3 phone, I succumbed to the constantly needling I get (with some justification) from my son (host of FanChatter.com), who rightfully scolds that if you’re really going to be a RunawayTrader, you’ve got to get with it and buy the latest technology to do so.
When my new smartphone is up and running, I’ll issue you a report on cost and benefits. And if you can to share your experiences with smartphone stock trading, please share.
Which brings me back to my original point: technology is moving so fast that you have to join in or it will leave you in the dust, groping to understand the changing world around you, whatever your occupation. Without a certain modicum of new age technological knowledge, the world will be speaking in techno-Babel while you sit in your cell and nurse visions of the “good ‘ol days.”
Well, enough is enough. This week, I finally join the ranks where most of you have marched for many months. Now if technology could only straighten out this sagging market and bring peace to the world, I’d be happy.
-Charlie, the Runaway Trader